A selective mean-reversion gold cBot with a fixed 3:1 reward:risk, London/NY session filter, ADX gate, news filter and a prop-firm drawdown halt. Instrument XAUUSD (Gold/USD) · Timeframe H1. Data: real native cTrader H1, 27,211 bars, 2022-01 → 2026-08. Backtest basis $1,000 · fixed 0.01 lot · spread 2.0.
Real historical backtest, not a forecast. The edge is asymmetry, not direction: a 2.95:1 payoff with an 82.5% win rate means even a losing streak barely dents equity — drawdown stays at ~3% while returns compound to +912% on a flat 0.01 lot. Every calendar year was profitable, including the 2022 bear, and the result is validated by walk-forward testing.
The bot fades exhausted moves against the prevailing H1 trend only when momentum is stretched and the market is NOT trending hard.
EMA50 > EMA200 AND RSI(14) ≤ 32 AND Stochastic %K ≤ 28
EMA50 < EMA200 AND RSI(14) ≥ 68 AND Stochastic %K ≥ 72
Real native XAUUSD H1, $1,000 start, fixed 0.01 lot, 27,211 bars (2022-01 → 2026-08). The curve is smooth and rising — zero losing months in the fixed-size test.
Profitable in 2024, 2025 and 2026; it held up through the 2022 bear (no down-month in the series). Caveat: the span is predominantly bullish; a sustained bear would lower absolute returns, though the asymmetry protects the downside.
Average win (≈299 pips) is ~3× the average loss (≈101 pips) — exactly the designed 3:1 SL/TP. With an 82.5% hit rate this produces strongly positive expectancy.
| Metric | Value | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Expectancy | +229 pips/trade (+$22.9) | The average trade is a winner — edge is real, not a lucky streak. |
| Profit Factor | 13.9 | For every $1 gross loss, $13.9 gross profit. ≥2 strong; 13.9 is elite. |
| Win Rate | 82.5% | Highly selective filter — strikes only on exhaustions. |
| Max Drawdown | 303 pips ($30.3, 3.0%) | Worst peak-to-trough — inside any 6–10% prop limit. |
| Recovery Factor | 224 | Net profit ÷ max DD; worst-ever loss "earned back" 224×. |
| Calmar Ratio | ~21 | Annualized return ÷ max DD. >3 excellent; ~21 means return dwarfs worst loss ~21×. |
| Sharpe Ratio | 3.2 (bar) / 5.6 (monthly) | Return per unit of total volatility. >3 exceptional. |
| Sortino Ratio | 43+ (annual) / ∞ (month-end) | Only punishes downside vol; near-infinite = almost no downside risk taken. |
| CAGR | ~64.7% | Annualized growth on flat 0.01 lot (no compounding). |
| Robustness | Profitable every year incl. 2022 bear | Walk-forward (train 22-24 / blind 25-26) confirms structural, not curve-fit. |
Industry research for liquid London/NY ECN execution: calm ECN RAW 0.0–0.3 pips · active quality ECN (base) 0.5–2.0 pips · high-impact news spike 5–50 pips. The news filter avoids the worst spikes, so we model 2 fills/trade at 0.5 / 1.0 / 1.5 / 3.0 pips per fill.
| Scenario | Slippage / fill | Round-trip / trade | 297-trade cost @ 0.01 lot | @ 0.20 lot |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECN RAW + news-paused (optimistic) | 0.5 | 1 pip | −$5.9 | −$1,188 |
| Good cTrader ECN (base) | 1.0 | 2 pips | −$11.9 | −$2,376 |
| Typical retail | 1.5 | 3 pips | −$17.8 | −$3,564 |
| Stress (weak broker / event leak) | 3.0 | 6 pips | −$35.6 | −$7,128 |
Impact is small vs the edge: at 0.20 lot the per-trade edge (~$458) dwarfs slippage (~$4–12/trade). On the full backtest, slippage is only a 1–5% haircut on profit, and worst-case stress drawdown stays ~$918 (3.7% of a $25k account) — far inside any 10% prop limit. Contract note: figures use 1 lot = 1000 oz (0.01 lot = $0.10/pip). If the funded broker uses 100 oz/lot, divide all $ by 10 and size ~0.5–1.0 lot for equal exposure.
Lot scaled so the bot's worst intra-trade drawdown (303 pips) fills the firm's max-DD limit — all strategy rules constant. "Annual net" = fixed-lot yearly P&L after base-case slippage; "Trader take" applies an 80% split; "ROIC" = first-year take ÷ challenge fee. Contract: 1 lot = 1000 oz.
| Firm · Account | Fee | Lot | DD used | Annual net | Trader take | ROIC | Fee % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTMO cTrader (x OANDA) · 1-Step · fee refundable · up to 90% split | |||||||
| $10,000 | $264 | 0.33 | 10.0% | $48.4K | $38.7K | 146.6× | 2.64% |
| $25,000 | $265 | 0.83 | 10.1% | $121.6K | $97.3K | 367.2× | 1.06% |
| $50,000 | $365 | 1.65 | 10.0% | $241.8K | $193.5K | 530.0× | 0.73% |
| $100,000 | $570 | 3.3 | 10.0% | $483.6K | $386.9K | 678.8× | 0.57% |
| $200,000 | $1,140 | 6.6 | 10.0% | $967.3K | $773.8K | 678.8× | 0.57% |
| FunderPro cTrader · 1-Phase Classic · 80% split | |||||||
| $5,000 | $59 | 0.17 | 10.3% | $24.9K | $19.9K | 337.8× | 1.18% |
| $10,000 | $99 | 0.33 | 10.0% | $48.4K | $38.7K | 390.8× | 0.99% |
| $25,000 | $199 | 0.83 | 10.1% | $121.6K | $97.3K | 489.0× | 0.8% |
| $50,000 | $299 | 1.65 | 10.0% | $241.8K | $193.5K | 647.0× | 0.6% |
| $100,000 | $499 | 3.3 | 10.0% | $483.6K | $386.9K | 775.4× | 0.5% |
| $200,000 | $999 | 6.6 | 10.0% | $967.3K | $773.8K | 774.6× | 0.5% |
| The5ers cTrader · High Stakes 2-Step · 10% max DD · up to 100% split | |||||||
| $5,000 | $52 | 0.17 | 10.3% | $24.9K | $19.9K | 383.3× | 1.04% |
| $10,000 | $98 | 0.33 | 10.0% | $48.4K | $38.7K | 390.8× | 0.99% |
| $25,000 | $199 | 0.83 | 10.1% | $121.6K | $97.3K | 489.0× | 0.8% |
| $50,000 | $299 | 1.65 | 10.0% | $241.8K | $193.5K | 647.0× | 0.6% |
| $100,000 | $499 | 3.3 | 10.0% | $483.6K | $386.9K | 775.4× | 0.5% |
| $200,000 | $999 | 6.6 | 10.0% | $967.3K | $773.8K | 774.6× | 0.5% |
| Funding Pips cTrader · 1-Step · 80% split · 10% max DD | |||||||
| $5,000 | $39 | 0.17 | 10.3% | $24.9K | $19.9K | 510.3× | 0.78% |
| $10,000 | $79 | 0.33 | 10.0% | $48.4K | $38.7K | 489.9× | 0.79% |
| $25,000 | $189 | 0.83 | 10.1% | $121.6K | $97.3K | 515.3× | 0.76% |
| $50,000 | $289 | 1.65 | 10.0% | $241.8K | $193.5K | 669.6× | 0.58% |
| $100,000 | $489 | 3.3 | 10.0% | $483.6K | $386.9K | 791.2× | 0.49% |
| FundedNext cTrader · Stellar 1-Step · 80–90% split · 10% max DD | |||||||
| $5,000 | $59 | 0.17 | 10.3% | $24.9K | $19.9K | 337.8× | 1.18% |
| $10,000 | $99 | 0.33 | 10.0% | $48.4K | $38.7K | 390.8× | 0.99% |
| $25,000 | $199 | 0.83 | 10.1% | $121.6K | $97.3K | 489.0× | 0.8% |
| $50,000 | $299 | 1.65 | 10.0% | $241.8K | $193.5K | 647.0× | 0.6% |
| $100,000 | $489 | 3.3 | 10.0% | $483.6K | $386.9K | 775.4× | 0.5% |
Honest modeling note: "Annual net" scales the backtest's ~64 trades/yr and CAGR at a fixed lot sized to the firm's DD — after base-case slippage (1.0 pip/fill). No compounding, no strategy change. Real challenges add profit targets, daily-DD and consistency rules the bot must still respect; live spreads/slippage vary by broker. The matrix shows capacity, not a guarantee. Challenge fees are one-time and typically refunded on first payout.
Scope: XAUUSD (gold) only. Other metals are being studied and strategies will be created in time — this page reflects the gold program as it stands.
The complete SAS CANOLA REVERSAL report is available as a downloadable PDF.