Market Commentary

Views from the desk.

Regular commentary from our metals, energy and agriculture teams on the forces moving global commodity markets.

Latest

Recent commentary.

Research · Solo Economy · Sep 2026

The Solo Founder Economy 2026 — Real Data, Real Numbers

AI-augmented solo founders earn 3x more than non-AI solos ($240K vs $48K median ARR). But 52% fail. Revenue benchmarks, case studies with footnotes, and the honest economics of building alone.

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Agriculture · Daily · 26 Aug 2026

Agriculture: Wheat leads the session

Wheat +6.4% on the day and +47.7% over twelve months, against cocoa at −26.7% — a 74-point dispersion. Kansas winter wheat flagged severe on a −70mm water balance.

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Precious Metals · Daily · 26 Aug 2026

Precious Metals: Gold leads the session

Gold at record territory with silver up 76% over twelve months. Realised volatility, two-year range position and the regional supply picture behind the move.

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Energy · Daily · 26 Aug 2026

Energy: Thermal coal leads the session

Coal, crude and gas read against Middle East swing supply, the Hormuz risk premium and Qatari LNG capacity additions.

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Critical Metals · Daily · 26 Aug 2026

Critical & Base Metals: cobalt leads the session

Copper's structural deficit, the DRC cobalt export quota and Chinese refining concentration — where the energy transition actually binds.

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Strategy · Featured · Aug 2026

AI and the future of commodities trading

The industry is at an inflection point deeper than the shift to electronic trading. The mechanism of AI-driven change, a five-pillar strategic framework, a three-year roadmap — and why data integration velocity, not data ownership, is the new moat.

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Research · Comprehensive · Sep 2026

Kenya Commodities Market — A Comprehensive Guide

A comprehensive guide covering Kenya's commodity trading history (barter to KOMEX), 2025 data on tea (KSh 218.8B), coffee (record KSh 38.74B), petroleum demand (5.712M tonnes), and strategic outlook.

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Daily Brief · Aug 26, 2026

Today's commodity brief — gold range, Hormuz oil, copper deficit, El Niño ag, silver paradox

One paragraph per market from the desk's morning read: gold's $4,412 consolidation, the Strait of Hormuz supply shock lifting Brent to $85 in 3Q26, copper's structural deficit, Super El Niño ag risk, and silver's paradox of using less yet still falling short.

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Metals · Aug 2026

Metals vs Gold: how each metal trades — and what drives it

A relative-value map of the metals complex: gold, silver, platinum, palladium and copper — what moves each, how they price against gold, and where the asymmetry sits.

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Metals · Aug 2026

Gold's range: why mean-reversion still works at $2,600

With spot gold consolidating, our metals desk explains why short-term dislocations keep offering disciplined reversion entries — and where the stop structure sits.

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Energy · Jul 2026

Natural gas: the swing fuel for a hotter summer

Storage draws and LNG export queues are tightening the TTF–Henry Hub spread. We map the structural drivers and the hedging structures we favor.

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Agriculture · Jul 2026

Coffee & cocoa: tropical supply risk into 2027

Weather and certification constraints are reshaping softs flows. A look at responsible-sourcing premiums and what they mean for forward pricing.

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Macro · Jun 2026

Commodity-linked FX in a higher-for-longer world

How producer currencies are trading the commodity cycle, and where relative-value structures offer cleaner exposure than direction.

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Risk · Jun 2026

Why we halt on drawdown — by design

A short note on the firm's risk framework: the max-drawdown halt, news filter, and per-account sizing that protect capital in every regime.

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Battery · May 2026

Lithium's reset: where the cost curve bites

Battery-grade carbonate has found a floor near cash costs. We outline the offtake and royalty structures our desk is watching into 2027.

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Disclaimer. Insights on this page are general commentary and do not constitute investment, legal or tax advice, or an offer or solicitation to trade any instrument. Views reflect the desk's opinion at the time of writing and may change without notice.